Where is the Trade War? An Update on Trump’s Trade Plan at the Beginning of His Term

On January 20, 2025, the newly inaugurated President Trump signed 118 executive orders (EOs) before the proverbial sun set on his first day in office, but businesses and trade stakeholders in the US, Mexico, and Canada alike watching avidly for an EO pertaining to tariffs against Mexico and Canada need not have stayed up late. To date, President Trump has not prescribed the tariffs against Mexico and Canada he threatened in 2024, but they are certainly not off the table: in an interview from the Oval Office on Monday night, he reiterated his threat of a blanket 25% tariff against Canada and Mexico starting February 1.

Concrete details on method and means may not be forthcoming prior to that date, but the White House’s memorandum on its official trade policy, issued the same day, prescribes that the Secretary of Commerce, USTR, and Secretary of Treasury conduct significant assessments of current trade policy and provide recommended actions to President Trump by April 1, 2025. This means that regardless of what tariffs are deployed on February 1, the international trade community should look to spring of this year for a more and complex set of changes to US trade policy regarding antidumping duties, intellectual property export regulations, and de minimis exemption import and more.

More concrete details on Trumps various threatened tariffs, including against the EU, China, and BRICS countries should therefore emerge at or before April of this year.

Allyn International’s service suite includes consultation on current and developing issues in the US trade community. Reach Allyn here for a consultation or, contact us sales@allynintl.com or 239-489-9900.

Contributor: Andrew Dosher

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