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“Tariff Diplomacy” means Tariff Volatility: Colombia and the Trump Presidency
On Sunday, January 26, 2025, The President of Colombia, Gustavo Petro barred two military flights from the USA from landing in his country. The flights contained deportees of Colombian citizens, and President Petro claimed he would not accept the flights because they constituted an afront to the dignity of the deportees.
President Trump’s response was immediate: he announced visa sanctions and travel bans on Colombian government officials and their families, and a 25% tariff on all Columbian goods entering the United States, to be raised to 50% the following week.
What followed was a flurry of exchanges – both public and escalatory – between Petro, Trump, and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, including nationalist rhetoric and the threat of counter-tariffs on the part of Colombia. Anyone catching a single headline during the afternoon’s diplomatic kerfuffle could be forgiven for expecting real economic and business consequences awaiting them the following Monday morning, but private communication between the two countries resolved the issue, and before the end of the day, EST, Bogotá and DC had come to an agreement: the white house press secretary reported that deportation flights to Colombia would resume and that “fully drafted IEEPA tariffs and sanctions will be held in reserve, and not signed, unless Colombia fails to honor their agreement.”
There is probably no better incident than this to characterize the dynamism of the economic diplomacy of the forthcoming Trump era. Trump’s unhesitating use of big stick diplomacy delivered through the legal medium of Executive Orders and the communication medium of X and other social media means that events can happen quickly – and resolve just as fast. In a trade environment where tariffs can be here today and gone tomorrow, the International Trade Community will need to be correspondingly quick on their feet to adapt to sudden changes, or better yet, to anticipate targeted areas of economic sanction before they arise.
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Contributor: Andrew Dosher
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