President Donald Trump: What Can the Trade Community Expect in 2025 and Beyond?

Donald Trump’s 2016 presidency inaugurated major changes to US international trade policy, most notably the renegotiation of NAFTA into the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) and major additional tariffs on Chinese products in particular and aluminum and steel in general. The durability of these policies became apparent in 2020 at the turnover of administrations, as President Biden left them largely intact.

Thus, at the end of 2024, with US trade still tinged with 2016-era policies and now poised to enter a second term of Trump administration, US businesses should be proactive an anticipating significant changes to federal trade policies and concomitant – not to say positive – impacts on international business, from profits to supply chains.

Before we begin to look at what those changes may be, we should emphasize that the final form of Trump’s economic policies may be difficult to predict in detail due to the complexities of implementation and the need to grade claims made during campaign on a curve for hyperbole, although that uncertainty provides another reason for businesses to prepare to anticipate scenarios that impact their operations.

Notwithstanding, the policies that the president-elect has spoken most vociferously about are sweeping: most consistently, he has proposed imposing an additional tariff of 10 to 20 percent on all imports (regardless of country of origin), and a tariff of up to 60% on goods from China. The intent of these tariffs is to encourage businesses to cut China out of their supply chains and move towards domestic sourcing alternatives. These tariffs are intended as a “stick,” not a “carrot,” and commercial US importers may be unable to avoid a financial impact even if they make optimal changes to their supply chain; meanwhile, for some sectors, sourcing from China could become untenable.

Obversely, these additional tariffs will inevitably provoke retaliatory tariffs from foreign countries (it hardly needs be said: especially China), so US exporters may find additional tariffs affecting their bottom line as their customers find cheaper alternatives to heavily taxed US goods.

These proposed tariffs represent the most broadly impactful federal interventions into international trade that businesses can expect from the second Trump presidency, and they are at least potentially actionable by the executive branch without the approval of congress, meaning they could be implemented in 2025, perhaps even early into the year. What’s more, discrete businesses and sectors may see specific, acute impact. For example, Trump has threatened to levy punitive tariffs against John Deer for moving their domestic manufacturing to Mexico, and on electric vehicles imported from Mexico at well, both at 200%.

For these reasons and more, businesses in trade partnership with companies in Mexico and Canada should take special note: Trump could threaten trade sanctions against Mexico to leverage his immigration policy (as he did in 2019). But most significantly, the USMCA will be due for joint review in 2026, and Trump’s administration could obtain to punitive alterations of it in order to effect their protectionist agenda.

Taken together, the US trade community can expect a significant impact on business and an ever-evolving, if not volatile, federal intervention into international trade. “Tariffs,” are the takeaway: Trump called ‘tariff’ “the most beautiful word in the dictionary” on more than one occasion during his 2024 campaign. US business should not procrastinate in exploring supply chain optionality and should pay close attention to ongoing regulation changes emanating from the oval office.

Allyn International continues to monitor anticipated changes in global trade and all federal legislation, acts, orders, and investigations. Our service suite includes consultation on compliance sourcing solutions and on developing information pertaining to new customs requirements. Reach Allyn Here for a consultation or, contact us sales@allynintl.com or 239-489-9900.

Contributor: Andrew Dosher

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About Allyn International

Allyn International is dedicated to providing high quality, customer centric services and solutions for the global marketplace. Allyn's core products include transportation management, logistics sourcing, freight forwarding, supply chain consulting, tax management and global trade compliance.  Allyn clients range from small local businesses to Fortune 500 firms. Allyn conducts business in more than 20 languages and has extensive experience in both developed and emerging markets. Highly trained experts are positioned throughout North America, Europe, and Asia. Allyn’s regional headquarters are strategically located in Fort Myers, Florida, U.S.A., Shanghai, P.R. China and Prague, Czech Republic. For more information, visit www.allynintl.com.